12 years of industry operating trend: Industry in12 years in the long-term growth and short cycle downlink superimposed phase, weak external demand and investment deleveraging will make iron and steel industry since 09 years of the short period of time in the first quarter of the bottom, the larger the probability of. Structural policy degree hedge periodic risk of falling, the second half of the year industry will be improved, the annual industry profitability improved slightly over the same period last year.
12 years of steel supply and demand judgment:
Demand is expected to end:12year apparent consumption of crude steel7.068tons, increased 6.8% over the same period.
Supply:09 years since the expansion cycle will continue at least until the end of 2012. A conservative estimate12 years together new ironmaking production capacity 45370000 tons, steel production capacity of8.22tonnes by the end of 2012.
There are still large idle capacity relative to the demand, demand marginal improvement is insufficient to move the steel price rise considerably. But under the background of current low stock traders inventory behavior may allow the industry capacity utilization, even under the situation of not high elasticity of supply became smaller, steel prices or short-term expectations.
Iron ore supply and demand judgment:
Although the iron ore expansion plan is huge ( to 2015three mines and small mine total capacity increment in 3.7tons, increase than 201147%), data on the oversupply is obvious, but a lot of uncertainty led to the planning and future effective supply will have a certain gap.
The short-term iron ore supply and demand is inelastic. Iron ore iron ore price decline in demand will lead to a larger decline, but oligopoly output control can moderate hedge demand downturn, industrial chain profit distribution did not significantly improve; and low demand elasticity on the other side is that, if the demand for iron ore once improved, ore price term may appear relatively rise substantially.